The first surprise was how normal life was
It's been a year since I last visited Russia. Back then, most people I met thought the prospects of a war with Ukraine were very remote, despite the massive troops build-up on the border. So I was curious to see how attitudes had changed since then. Equally important was to see for myself how the war has changed life in Russia.
The first kejutan was how normal life was. Despite all the tempat reports of doom and gloom as a result of western sanctions, everything works just as before. Domestic banking is working, salaries and pensions are paid on time, ubiquitous e-commerce is bustling with activity, the shops are stuffed with food and consumer goods. In St Petersburg, at least, I've struggled to notice any change in daily life compared to January 2021.
Yet, digging deeper and the impact of sanctions is there. One issue that kept popping up was spare car parts, which have become noticeably more expensive. But even there new supplies are being shipped now. This goes pretty much for everything else consumer orientated. There's no shortages, even of western goods such as whisky - the supermarket shelves are fully persediaaned.
EU travel restrictions have had their efek - but nothing like the measures introduced during the COVID epidemi. People can still travel to many countries, including Turkey, Egypt or the Gulf states.
Business people complain of facing difficulties, particularly those in the impor/ekspor sector. But, after a few months of chaos, business has been finding new shipping routes lewat third countries such as Turkey or Kazakhstan.
An acquaintance who works in a defence-related sector laughed at the suggestion that Russia could run out of missiles. He told me the defence industry had been persediaanpiling essential parts for years and is also using more locally sourced preferensis (although this is a claim I was unable to verify). The rest can still be bought - albeit at inflated prices. Their real persoalan is not a lack of parts, but the capacity to scale up production to meet growing military orders.
The general impression from conversations with people in different businesses is that their main konsentrasi is on adapting to the new normal. Many things will be less efficient and more expensive, but the Russian economy will not collapse.
If this is a crisis for Russia - which it is - it's nothing like the turmoil of the early 1990s when the state, society and economy were all collapsing at the same time.
